web3: Stablecoins may grow to $1.45 trillion by 2035
CNBC
08-05 22:22
Ai Focus
The stablecoin market is expected to grow to $1.45 trillion by 2035, with institutions accelerating their deployment in payment and settlement scenarios.
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稳定币正从加密交易中的资金停泊工具,逐步走向更广泛的支付和结算场景。外媒援引 Morningstar 数据称,目前流通中的稳定币规模约为 3000 亿美元,市场预计到 2035 年可能增至 1.45 万亿美元,推动因素包括金融机构对区块链支付网络的接受度上升。

机构开始押注支付用途

6 月,Visa、Mastercard 和 BlackRock 参与支持一项名为 Open USD 的美元稳定币项目,背后联盟成员超过 140 家。报道认为,这显示传统金融机构正更认真地将区块链视为资金转移工具,而不只是加密交易配套设施。

稳定币通常锚定美元等资产,发行方会持有美国国债等高流动性储备,以维持 1:1 兑换能力。对加密交易者而言,这类资产可在卖出比特币等代币后,快速转为价格相对稳定的数字现金,避免等待银行转账清算。

  • 当前稳定币流通规模约 3000 亿美元
  • 2035 年市场规模预测为 1.45 万亿美元
  • Open USD 获逾 140 家机构支持

消费者端仍有使用门槛

报道同时提到,稳定币与银行存款并不相同。虽然美国监管部门正参与建立稳定币发行规则,但稳定币本身并不附带传统储蓄账户常见的联邦存款保险保障。

此外,用户将稳定币兑换回美元时,很多情况下仍需通过券商或其他中介平台,而不是直接向发行方赎回。这意味着,用户对资金可得性的判断,仍取决于相关服务商的运营稳定性。

部分平台会通过合作安排,为持有稳定币的用户提供类似“奖励”的收益。但报道援引市场人士观点称,这类收益之所以更高,部分原因正是其保险保障较弱、监管要求也相对不同。

增长更可能先发生在后台系统

文章称,稳定币发展的一个转折点,是美国国会此前通过 GENIUS Act,为稳定币发行主体和储备资产范围建立监管框架。这被视为金融机构进一步入场的重要前提。

行业人士认为,基于区块链的支付网络具备更快、更便宜、全天候运行的特点,适合跨机构转账和清算。相比直接改变消费者支付习惯,稳定币更可能先用于银行、卡组织和支付公司之间的后台资金流转。

报道举例称,未来稳定币也可能用于零售支付或大额交易,例如车辆买卖中的即时结算。不过,多位受访者认为,美国消费者短期内仍会继续依赖信用卡,因为后者在便利性、积分奖励和消费者保护方面仍更成熟。

文章还提到,随着 AI 系统参与经济活动的程度上升,传统支付网络处理速度和可用时段的局限可能更加明显。在这一背景下,稳定币和区块链支付轨道被部分行业人士视为更适合机器实时调用的数字货币基础设施。

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