On-chain data shows that Ethereum has recently shown a rare sign of a temporary rebound. Its daily MVRV indicator has crossed above the 160-day simple moving average, a move typically interpreted as a sign of weakening selling pressure and a resurgence in buying. Simultaneously, inflows into spot ETFs, increased holdings by whales, and rising staking volumes are also providing support for ETH's price action.
The MVRV indicator crossed above the 160-day moving average.
MVRV, or Market Cap to Realized Market Cap, is often used to assess whether a market is overvalued or undervalued. The report notes that in the past three years, Ethereum has experienced significant rebounds after this indicator forms a similar "golden cross."
The article lists several phases, including early 2023, late 2023 to Q1 2024, and Q2 and Q3 2024. During these periods, ETH recorded gains of approximately 50%, 166%, 74%, and 113%, respectively. While historical performance does not directly predict future trends, the renewed strength of this indicator suggests that market sentiment has improved compared to before.
ETF holdings and whale holdings increased in tandem.
In terms of funding, the spot Ethereum ETF has recorded net inflows for three consecutive weeks. Last week saw a net inflow of approximately $103.9 million, and the cumulative net inflow for July reached $337.74 million, indicating that institutional funds continue to flow in.
During the same period, Bitmine, a publicly traded company that publicly holds Ethereum, purchased over 9,900 ETH. The report also stated that the number of mid-sized whale wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH increased from 4,750 in June to 4,850 in late July.
Another noteworthy statistic is that the concentration of holdings by large addresses remains high. Whale addresses holding more than 100,000 ETH collectively hold 17.41 million ETH, representing over 22% of the circulating supply.
- ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $103.9 million over the past week.
- In July, ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $337.74 million.
- The largest whales hold a total of 17.41 million ETH.
With the scale of pledging expanding, the market is focusing on key price levels.
In addition to spot buying, the amount of ETH staked is also increasing. Reports show that the figure has increased from 63 billion on July 1 to 77 billion currently, reflecting increased on-chain participation and long-term holding intentions.
In terms of price, ETH rose 0.85% in the past 24 hours to $1,939, triggering the liquidation of over $100 million in short positions. The article argues that for the current recovery to continue, the $1,850 to $1,900 range needs to provide further support; if it subsequently reclaims the 200-day moving average at $2,134, market expectations for a medium-term trend reversal may further intensify.
Going forward, the market will also be watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the progress of the US Senate's review of the CLARITY Act, and changes in the Middle East situation, all of which could affect Ethereum's short-term volatility.
