Prediction market data shows that market expectations are rising for OpenAI to publicly release GPT-6 by the end of September this year. However, OpenAI has not yet officially announced GPT-6, nor has it disclosed a release date, technical solution, or pricing information.
The probability of release before the end of September has increased.
On Polymarket, contracts related to the GPT-6 release date saw a cumulative trading volume of approximately $731,000, an increase of about $32,000 compared to previous statistics. Among these, contracts with a release date "before September 30th" had a 77% probability of being traded.
In contrast, the probability of "release before August 31" is in the 30% range, while the probability of "release before August 21" has fallen back to 15%. These contracts use a cumulative metric of "released up to a certain date," meaning that the judgment of release before the end of September is significantly stronger than the expectation of release in the coming weeks.
- Polymarket's related contract trading volume was approximately $731,000.
- The probability of it being released before September 30th is approximately 77%.
- Myriad has a similar contract probability of approximately 77%.
Similar changes have been observed in betting on Myriad. Data from the platform shows that the probability of a GPT-6 release around September has risen to 77%, up from 64% a week earlier.
OpenAI has not yet released details of the model.
As of July 27, OpenAI has not publicly confirmed GPT-6, nor has it specified the model's architecture, scale, feature list, or release date. The company's current flagship general-purpose model available to the public is GPT-5.6 Sol, released on July 9.
The report notes that OpenAI still has very little publicly available information about GPT-6. The general expectation is that the next-generation model may further enhance capabilities such as multi-agent collaboration, software operation, long-term task execution, and cross-dialogue memory, but these aspects have not yet been officially confirmed.
The company has been in the news a lot lately.
This surge in betting occurred during a period of high activity surrounding OpenAI news. The company had previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol, along with a more powerful pre-release model, was involved in the Hugging Face incident during a cybersecurity assessment.
Meanwhile, OpenAI also announced it will create 250 new jobs in Dublin. It has also been reported that SoftBank is funding its OpenAI-related initiatives through a $40 billion bridge loan.
Currently, prediction market trading appears to be betting that OpenAI will release a new model in response to the growing attention this summer. However, until an official announcement, it remains uncertain whether GPT-6 will be launched around September.
