The crypto market weakened overall on Monday, but US stock futures continued to rise, and the persistent "crypto underperforms equities" trend reappeared this year. Bitcoin fell 1% since midnight UTC, while Ethereum's decline was relatively smaller. Gold and the US dollar index remained largely unchanged, with the market lacking a clear macroeconomic driver.
Sentiment indicators remain cautious.
CoinMarketCap's Fear & Greed Index stands at 34, remaining in the "fear" zone. The average RSI for crypto trading pairs has fallen to 44.07, approaching the oversold levels that triggered the July rally. Meanwhile, the altcoin seasonal indicator rose to 55/100, a multi-month high, indicating that some funds are still seeking opportunities in small- and mid-cap tokens.
Futures trading volume increased, but open interest did not keep up.
In the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency futures trading volume surged 81% to $127 billion, but open interest remained largely unchanged at approximately $111 billion. This suggests that the market is primarily focused on turnover rather than establishing new directional positions.
Bitcoin futures open interest remained around 750,000 BTC. Despite prices briefly surpassing $64,000, leverage demand did not show a significant rebound. Ethereum and XRP futures exhibited similar patterns, reflecting investors' reluctance to increase their risk exposure at this time.
SOL holdings contracted, BCH volatility risk increased.
Solana futures open interest fell to 62 million tokens, the lowest level since early May, a significant drop from the high of over 76 million tokens on June 24, indicating that some funds are withdrawing.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is one of the few exceptions. Open interest in BCH futures surged 20% in a single day to 1.73 million coins, matching the high reached on June 21st. Meanwhile, BCH fell 3% in the past 24 hours to around $213. The increase in open interest coupled with the price decline suggests that further volatility may be amplified.
The options market remains defensive.
Looking at the trading volume, the 24-hour cumulative trading volume difference for most major tokens remains negative, indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate short-term price movements. ZEC shows the most significant negative value, indicating it is under considerable pressure among major tokens.
In the Deribit options market, put options for BTC and ETH remain more expensive than call options, indicating that defensive sentiment has not eased significantly. However, short-term trading volume has seen some upward betting: Bitcoin call options at $70,000 are the most actively traded contracts, while Ethereum call options at $2,450 are among the top-traded.
Furthermore, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index is close to 36%. CoinDesk believes that this area has repeatedly acted as a low range in recent years, and historically, the market has often experienced greater volatility after reaching this level.
PUMP becomes one of the few bright spots
During a generally weak trading session, PUMP surged 20% due to increased social media discussion, becoming the most watched token of the day. Other tokens showed mixed performance: ZEC fell 3.68%, FET dropped 2.94%, and TAO declined 2.58%; JUP rose slightly by 1.02%, while LIT continued to decline from its previous high.
