Disagreements exist over the trend of U.S. stocks after the mid-term elections; control of Congress becomes a key variable
2026-11-04 21:59:44
According to CoinMeta, there are divergent views on the trend of the U.S. stock market after the mid-term elections, with control of Congress becoming a key variable. Although historical data shows that the U.S. stock market generally rises after mid-term elections regardless of which party wins, some strategists on Wall Street warn clients not to be overly optimistic this time. Fundamentally, after the Democrats expand their political influence, they may strengthen regulation of the artificial intelligence industry, which could drag down corporate earnings growth. Additionally, interest rates remain at relatively high levels, raising doubts about whether historical patterns will repeat themselves. Analysis reveals that since the 1950s, when Republican presidents were in office and the Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress, the stock market performed poorly, with the S&P 500 index averaging only a 4.9% annual increase. In contrast, when Republican presidents were in office and Congress was divided between the two parties, the market performed better, with the S&P 500 index rising by an average of 14% annually. During a four-year presidential term cycle, years of mid-term elections have always been those with the greatest market volatility, with an average maximum drawdown of nearly 18%.
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Source:Jin10 Data
This content is for market information only and does not constitute investment advice.