Jiang Zhuoer: Probability of the Fed raising interest rates rises to 91.8%
2026-09-15 08:58:31
According to CoinMeta, Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of LaiBit Mining Pool, stated that under the current market pricing, interest rate hikes have essentially become a baseline expectation. The real variables will be the tone of the post-meeting statements and the chairman's speech, which will indicate whether the stance is hawkish or dovish. Based on futures pricing by CME FedWatch, the probability of the U.S. Federal Funds Rate being raised by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at this week's FOMC meeting has risen to 91.8%, compared to just 58.1% a week ago. He pointed out that there has never been a precedent for such a high probability without an interest rate hike and believes that mature markets like the U.S. stock market have already fully priced in such increases. However, due to the higher proportion of retail investors in the crypto market, the pricing of policy changes may be relatively lagging.
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