According to CoinMeta, Frank Fleet, the head of macro strategy at Citadel Securities, stated that although he warned U.S. bond investors last month about underestimating the risk of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, he now believes that the risk balance has shifted in favor of bond gains. This is due to overcrowded short positions and improving inflation data. He pointed out that long-term U.S. bonds have been under pressure in recent weeks, and simulations of trend-following strategies such as Citadel against CTA show that their bearish positions are "quite excessive" relative to recent historical levels. This means that further declines in U.S. bonds would only trigger limited selling, while a sustained rise could force shorts to close their positions. Fleet's bullish judgment is in stark contrast to his previous stance; in early July, he warned that bond investors were underestimating the Fed's determination to curb inflation. Now he believes that concerns about the Fed's credibility are exaggerated, as recent economic data seem to justify a more dovish policy response.