According to CoinMeta, based on the “Federal Reserve Observation” data from CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 59.0%, the probability of a total interest rate hike of 25 basis points is 41.0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged until October is 46.6%, and the probability of a total interest rate hike of 50 basis points is 8.6%. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the short term prevail, reflecting that current monetary policy has entered an observation period. The coexistence of different probability scenarios for interest rate hikes indicates that the market remains wary of the risk of inflation rebounding, and the competition over policy paths continues to be intense.