Shenwan Hongyuan: In the short term, the Federal Reserve may remain inactive
2026-07-30 08:12:00
According to CoinMeta, a research report from Shenwan Hongyuan states that the market implications of the reform of the Walsh communication framework do not lie in changing the Federal Reserve's policy stance, but rather in altering the driving factors behind asset pricing. This reform will shift the market from focusing on "trading rhetoric" to emphasizing "trading data, scenarios, and response functions." If the Fed no longer provides forward guidance, short-term interest rates will become more sensitive to data, and long-term interest rates will more fully reflect term premiums, inflation credibility, and fiscal risks. Macroeconomic trading will shift from guessing what the Fed will say to assessing under what conditions the Fed will act. In the short term, the Fed may choose to remain inactive. On one hand, rising long-term interest rates and tightening financial conditions could suppress the real economy, reducing the urgency for the Fed to raise interest rates. On the other hand, considering the trend of declining inflation, the Fed might opt to stay put in the short term. In the future, attention should be focused on the inflationary effects of AI investments and the impact of AI on the supply side.
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Source:Jin10 Data
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