According to CoinMeta, a macro research report from Huatai Securities states that the Fed's inaction during the July meeting FOMC consumed a certain degree of its credibility. Inflation expectations rose, and long-term interest rates increased. It is still likely that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. The more hawkish than expected meeting FOMC in June led to tighter financial conditions and a decline in inflation expectations, which in turn boosted the Fed's credibility. However, with energy prices rising again, the Fed's inaction during the July meeting FOMC may lead the market to believe that Powell's zero-tolerance stance on inflation is merely a show of force. After the meeting, inflation expectations rebounded, and long-term yields increased, indicating that the Fed's credibility has been somewhat eroded. Huatai Securities reiterates that the probability of a rate hike in September is high, with a baseline forecast of 1-2 hikes this year and 2 hikes by the middle of next year. Risks include the possibility that Powell's hawkish stance is just for show, as well as a sudden end to economic prosperity AI leading to tighter financial conditions, making rate hikes unnecessary. Attention should be paid to employment and inflation data in July and August, as well as Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole on August 27th.